Are we heading towards World War III?
World War III will come sooner or later. There have to be several elements in place for a war to break out. And then this war has to have certain attributes to be qualified as a world war.
First, let’s see which factors usually cause wars:
According to the Heidelberg Institute of Conflict Research, these are the reasons why nations or groups go to war:
“Ideological change” is named the main reason for conflict. But can it cause a major conflict and even a World War? The only group of persons that is pursuing ideological change worldwide and has the necessary capacity to cause serious damage is radical Islam.
But are they able to start a World War? By definition, a WW is “a war involving many large nations in all different parts of the world….”(Google search “world war definition” 12/16/2015)
What we see at the moment is that a not-so-large conflict (Syria) is involving many large nations (the United States, Russia, many NATO countries…).
The only element that is lacking to call the War in Syria a World War is that it is locally contained to only one region. What if the Syrian war would spread globally?
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Radical Islam is a threat to many places of the world. Many places around the globe were the target of terrorist attacks. Worse, many countries are destabilized by radical Islamic groups and their governments struggle to stay in power.
In Africa and the Arabian Peninsula but also in the Far East many countries have extremely serious conflicts with radical Islamic groups which could seize power there any time. The list of these “failed nations” is long: Especially Libya and Egypt, but also Yemen, Mali, Nigeria and let’s not forget Somalia could “fall” any time to radical Islam.
A chain reaction similar to the “Arab spring” is possible. If one country surrenders to the Islamists it will immediately become a base for the radicals of its neighboring countries. Egypt has a huge army that was build up by the United States for many years. Its weapon arsenal contains modern weapons that could provide Islamist groups with a frightening potential to strike. Worse, Pakistan has nuclear weapons that could fall into the hand of radical Islamic insurgents.
Algerian ISIS member with a hostage.
In case of such an “Islamic chain reaction”, the nations currently fighting ISIS would have no other choice than to engage. And the only nation on earth that has the military power and the logistics to project it in these regions is the United States. But U.S. military power is not unlimited. Troops would have to be withdrawn from other regions, especially Korea and Afghanistan, a development which then would further destabilize Asia. There were already Islamist insurgencies in Thailand and the Philippines which could grow further. Indonesia has a Muslim population of 218 million which might radicalize under these circumstances.
Additionally, terrorist activity against the nations that are fighting ISIS would reach highest levels. The reaction against these terrorist attacks would alienate even more Muslims.
Sleeping conflicts like in Chechnya, Bosnia, and Kosovo could also flare up again. All the different Islamic groups and nations would be united under the banner of the Caliphate and form a mighty coalition.
In the end, we would have a scenario that one could call a World War. This is a pessimistic outlook, but not totally far-fetched and unrealistic.
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